2025 Machinery Market Form Forecast

2025 Machinery Market Form Forecast

Looking ahead to 2025, the machinery industry is facing the internal and external environment is still complex and severe, but support the industry's high-quality development of favorable factors continue to gather more.

(A) the external environment has become more severe and complex

First, the global economic growth rate overall downward. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economic growth rate of 3.3% in 2025, and the growth rate for the next five years will remain roughly at about 3%, which is lower than the historical average of 3.7% before the epidemic (2000-2019). Second, the international trade environment has deteriorated. Globalization has suffered a countercurrent, trade protectionism prevails, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the growth rate of global trade in the past 10 years has been lower than the growth rate of global GDP, contrary to the trend of the previous 20 years. Third, foreign trade friction has intensified. Developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe, as well as some developing countries involved in China's economic and trade reviews have increased significantly, especially the tariffs imposed on electric vehicles by many countries, the implementation of carbon tariffs, the recent announcement of the U.S. 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, and other measures that have posed a serious challenge to the export of enterprises.

(ii) Domestic environment continues to be favorable in general

First, macro policies are favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out the direction of the work in 2025, put forward five "must be integrated", deployed nine key tasks, pointed out five "target", for the future economic work, including the development of the machinery industry, provides a fundamental guideline and guide to action. Second, the macroeconomic environment continues to improve. The fundamentals of China's economy and the broad market, economic resilience, strong potential and other favorable conditions have not changed; macroeconomic policies and measures introduced one after another, the momentum of industrial economic development continues to accumulate. Third, the policy to enhance the expansion of market demand continues to improve. 2025 "two new" to enhance the expansion of the policy has been introduced and quickly implemented, will lead to the continuation of the domestic demand for mechanical products market upturn to the good trend. Fourth, the development trend is favorable. The central economic work conference made clear a number of supporting action programs and implementation plans, most of which are closely related to the machinery industry, will bring new development opportunities for the machinery industry.

(C) industry development of endogenous power is still strong

Machinery industry foundation is stable, strong resilience, great potential. First, the machinery industry has a complete industrial system, increasingly perfect infrastructure and large-scale market and other advantages, with high-quality talent and innovative corporate culture, with advanced enterprises at home and abroad, exchange and cooperation, and good opportunities for common development. These advantages provide a solid foundation and broad space for our future development. Secondly, the machinery industry will continue to promote the supply-side structural reform, adhere to the innovation-driven and integrated development, cultivate and grow new kinetic energy and new advantages, promote the development of high-end, intelligent, green and integrated development, continue to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain, and continuously enhance the endogenous momentum of the industry's development. Third, the industry and enterprises to work hard to power unabated, especially the majority of enterprises to overcome difficulties, stable growth to protect the overall situation, in the development of the industry to play an important engine and support role.

(D) industry development there are still some difficulties and challenges

First, the market demand is sluggish. 2024 manufacturing orders on hand index continues to be below the critical value of the lower level, the end of the year the machinery industry order index than the mid-year high fell back about 5 points. Second, product prices continue to fall. 2024 machinery industry factory price index fell overall in about 2%, automotive, machine tools, photovoltaic equipment, robotics and other industries reflect the price competition is very fierce. Third, the level of profitability significantly downward. 2024 machinery industry total profits since March continued to decline year-on-year, the annual profit margin fell 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous year. Fourth, the accounts receivable recovery difficult to increase the pressure. 2024 machinery industry accounts receivable totaled 9.1 trillion yuan, hitting a new annual high, accounts receivable average recovery period of 32.7 days higher than the national industry. Fifth, the production and operation of some enterprises is difficult. 2024 machinery industry loss of 26.4% year-on-year increase in the loss of enterprises, the growth rate of 14.6 percentage points higher than the national industry.

(E) 2025 operation trend prediction

On the whole, the future development of machinery industry is still both opportunities and challenges, but the opportunities are greater than the challenges, favorable conditions are stronger than unfavorable factors. Comprehensive judgment, it is expected that in 2025 the machinery industry will continue to maintain a stable development trend, continue to play the role of an important engine of the national economy, the growth rate of the main economic indicators is expected to be around 5.5%, foreign trade to maintain basic stability.

The year 2025 is a key year for the machinery industry to implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party and the country, to realize the closing of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to lay a solid foundation for the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan". Machinery industry will adhere to Xi Jinping new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the guide, fully implement the 20th Party Congress, the 20th Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the Party, in-depth implementation of the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the word "dry" at the forefront, enhance confidence, rise to the challenge, and strive to ensure that the Party Central Committee's decisions and deployments to the implementation, adhere to the leadership of scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the promotion of industrial upgrading, to cultivate and strengthen the new quality of productivity, and solidly promote high-end production, and to promote the development of new products and services. productivity, solidly promote the development of high-end, intelligent, green and integrated, strengthen industry self-discipline, accelerate the construction of a modernized industrial system of machinery industry, high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals and tasks, to lay a solid foundation for a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan", and to promote the high-quality development of machinery industry and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse. The industry will contribute to the high-quality development of machinery industry and the construction of a strong manufacturing country.